In 2025, Missouri’s agricultural industry is keeping a close eye on a growing global issue — the sharp drop in cotton production and the trade risks it brings. While Missouri is not a major cotton-producing state, many farmers, exporters, and local businesses in the region are feeling the impact of these changes.

The recent cotton shortages, which are being spurred by climate fluctuations, droughts, and rising production costs in major countries, are sounding alarm bells for economies that rely on secure trade. One of the largest concerns associated with this issue is the future of GSP+ (Generalized System of Preferences Plus), a trade program that assist imports from developing countries and assist in keeping prices stable for U.S. companies.

Missouri’s agricultural sector, known for its soybeans, corn, livestock, and processed goods, may not directly grow cotton at scale, but it depends heavily on the products and trade systems connected to it. As prices rise and international partnerships become shaky, local stakeholders are beginning to feel the pressure.

Cotton May Not Be Grown Here, But It Still Matters

Cotton isn’t Missouri’s main crop — far from it. However, the cotton trade connects to many industries within the state, from animal feed and seed oil production to textile imports and processing businesses. Cottonseed, for example, is used in feed for livestock, and cotton fabrics are vital to local textile manufacturers and retailers.

With world-wide cotton output declining, the supply chain is constricting. That translates into higher raw-cotton prices and all the products attached to them — including those sold or used by Missouri-based companies.

Farmers are shelling out more for supplies. Retail clothing stores are changing prices. And shipping companies are seeing delays and higher costs. It’s a slow ripple, but one that could balloon into something much larger if not checked.

Learning about the GSP+ Program

The Generalized System of Preferences Plus (GSP+) is a trade program that enables the developing nations to export commodities to markets such as the United States without paying some of these tariffs — but only if they satisfy very strict conditions concerning labor rights, environmental protection, and governance.

This program serves both parties. Developing nations have access to worth markets. At the same time, U.S. companies — and those based in Missouri — receive cheaper imports and access to more varied goods, particularly raw materials such as cotton and textiles.

But now, due to declining cotton production and challenges in meeting GSP+ standards, some of these countries risk losing their eligibility. If that happens, tariffs will return, prices will rise, and Missouri’s small- and medium-sized businesses could suffer.

Missouri Farmers Share Their Concerns

Even though cotton isn’t a focus crop for Missouri, the farming community understands how changes in global trade can affect their bottom line.

A central Missouri grain farmer said, “We already experience price fluctuations in corn and soybeans. If trade programs such as GSP+ begin to disintegrate, it won’t take long before the cost of doing business increases across the board.”

Livestock producers are particularly concerned about feed prices. Cottonseed meal, a cotton-processing by-product, is widespread in animal feed. As cotton becomes limited, feed prices begin to increase, and that burdens farmers’ pockets.

Local Businesses Also Tightening Their Belts

It isn’t just farmers alone. Textile stores, processors, and even trucking companies in Missouri are seeing changes.

A St. Louis-based small business owner who imports cotton fabrics for clothing production said, “We’ve had to raise our prices twice in the last six months. If GSP+ ends for any of our main suppliers, it’ll only get worse. We’ll lose customers.”

Retailers are also noticing delays and cost increases in basic cotton goods like T-shirts, towels, and sheets — items people buy every day. These delays, if they continue, could hurt sales and force stores to look for more expensive suppliers.

What Can Be Done?

Missouri’s agricultural leaders and small business associations are calling for proactive steps to reduce the impact of these growing trade risks. Some of their suggestions include:

• Promoting diversification of imports and suppliers to avoid over-reliance on a single nation.
• Facilitating indigenous alternatives such as hemp or recyclables for textile manufacturing.
• Advocating transparent communication from federal trade officials regarding the standing of GSP+ alliances.
• Offering economic assistance to small firms hit by increasing material prices.

There is also increasing interest in regional collaboration — cooperating with local states to construct safer supply chains and decrease dependence on imports that are increasingly uncertain.

Looking Ahead

Missouri is accustomed to shifts in the market, but the situation with the cotton and GSP+ reminds everyone how intertwined agriculture and trade have become. Cotton may not be a top Missouri product, but its shortfalls and the changes in the trade around it are affecting farmers, businesses, and consumers alike in visible ways.

If the GSP+ program falters or if cotton supply issues persist, Missouri will have to move quickly to prop up its local economy. For the time being, the focus is on being aware, planning ahead, and being prepared for whatever lies ahead.