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Russia could launch the maiden flight of its newest rocket, the Soyuz-5, before the end of the year. The head of Roscosmos, Dmitry Bakanov, told the state media service TASS in an interview this week.

“Yes, we are planning for December,” Bakanov said. “Everything is in place.”

If launched, the Soyuz-5 will do so from the Baikonur spaceport in Kazakhstan. That launch will be the rocket’s first flight after more than a decade of development. Roscosmos plans multiple demonstration flights for the rocket. However, Russian officials do not expect the system to enter service before 2028 at the earliest.

The Soyuz-5, also known as Irtysh, does not represent a revolutionary new design. In fact, the rocket’s development is rooted in past Soviet designs. Engineers have been working on it since 2016. The concept reuses existing designs but shifts production to be fully inside of Russia.

That distinction matters a great deal. Russia has long imported rocket parts from Ukraine. In the past, the Zenit-2 launch vehicle served as the pinnacle of that cooperation. Zenit was originally designed in the 1980s by the Yuzhnoye Design Bureau in Dnipro, Ukraine. The rocket flew dozens of missions into the 2010s. Zenit was a two-stage rocket with both stages manufactured in Ukraine. The first stage was powered by a single Russian RD-171 main engine from the state enterprise NPO Energomash.

Cooperation between Russian and Ukrainian partners extended well into the post-Soviet era. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, all cooperation ended. Russia targeted the Ukrainian factory that built Zenit rockets by late 2023.

The Soyuz-5 is, in many ways, a larger version of Zenit produced entirely in Russia. The rocket represents an end to the decades-long reliance on Ukrainian components.

Potential of the Soyuz-5

The Soyuz-5 is a medium-lift launch vehicle that can place about 17 metric tons into low-Earth orbit. It is similar in many ways to the Zenit-2 but has slightly larger fuel tanks. In turn, that means it can carry more weight.

The rocket’s heart is a single RD-171MV main engine. It is a new version of the Soviet-designed engine that once powered Zenit. The RD-171MV dates to the Soviet Union’s Energia rocket program that at one point launched the Buran space shuttle. It is the successor to the RD-171 that flew in the Zenit.

While the RD-171 was based on the original Soviet design, it did include some Ukrainian components. That is not the case with RD-171MV. The newer engine uses kerosene and liquid oxygen as propellants. The RD-171MV produces more than three times as much thrust as a single Space Shuttle main engine. As of 2023, the RD-171MV is the most powerful liquid-fueled rocket engine on Earth.

While the engine is powerful, the entire Soyuz-5 rocket is expendable. Many other rockets of its size and class, like SpaceX’s Falcon 9, have reusable designs. That difference could limit Soyuz-5’s competitiveness in the long run.

Russia’s space agency Roscosmos will use the Soyuz-5 as a replacement for both Zenit and its older Proton-M system. Both of those rockets suffered setbacks after the invasion of Ukraine. Soyuz-5 would allow Moscow to remain independent of other partners.

The Russian space program has lost funding in recent years as the government pours money into the war in Ukraine. That has not stopped the Soyuz-5 from getting close to the launch pad.

Observers regard the rocket as a stopgap measure. While it will allow the space industry to survive, it will not propel Russia ahead of the rest of the world. A much greater technological leap will come with the Soyuz-7, or the Amur project. This future rocket is to have a reusable first stage and methane-powered engines. It would be competitive with other modern launch vehicles. However, delays have pushed the first flight to at least 2030.

There is no telling if Soyuz-5 will have customers outside Russia. SpaceX and Chinese providers now dominate the commercial launch market. Both have their own reusable technologies, while offering low prices.

Russia has used Soyuz-2 for crewed missions and the Angara family for heavy payloads. Neither has gained significant business from foreign customers. For Soyuz-5 to be a commercial success, it will have to be both reliable and cheap—areas where competition is stiff.

December’s test flight will draw plenty of attention. A successful December launch would indicate that sanctions and reduced budgets have not stopped Russia from producing new space technology.

The Soyuz-5 will not be a pathbreaking rocket. However, for Roscosmos it will represent independence, as well as continuity and survival during a difficult time. In the meantime, all eyes are on Baikonur and the December launch. If it succeeds, it will be the beginning of the next chapter of Russia’s space history, written with ink from its past.